What is the Future of Agriculture?

The Future of Agriculture

01/ When you talk about the future, you need a) Narrative that humans can easily identify with and b) Numbers to make sure that you don’t get swayed too much by the narrative.

I will first present the narrative version and then corroborate them with numbers.

02/ When I wrote the central hypothesis underpinning this newsletter (which is a far more detailed version of the summary that I am presenting below), I wrote that the future of agriculture is a contest between two polarizing, but seductive visions, quietly playing out, competing with each other.

Vision #1: Small land-holding farmers don't matter in the long run, as their farms will be eventually consolidated by the market economics of digital agribusiness.

Vision #2: Small land-holding farmers matter in the long run, as the world's (and therefore our) ability to face environmental crises and climate change depends on their sovereignty to pursue their economic well-being and adapt to the changing times.

Using the definition of JamesCarse’sFinite and Infinite Games,

A finite game is defined by known players, fixed rules, and the objective of the game is already agreed upon: You play the game to win.

An infinite…